Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
